I lie here at home, listening to heavy and damoclean music, and wondering what the future holds in store for humanity in general, and America in particular. People like me study history to get a glimpse into that future, because we have lived long enough to know that all that has happened before will happen again. And what I have learned has taught me that we stand on the eve of a very pivotal and historic moment, socioeconomically, militarily, and politically.
But first, a short history lesson: why and how did America win the Cold War? My own understanding of the geo-strategic choices that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union are very sobering, because if true, they have profound implications for our own future. The Soviets at their height were the most militarily powerful nation ever. There was no way we or any other army could have defeated them in a ground war, whether conventional or nuclear. They had an 11 million man army, tens of thousands of nuclear warheads, and enough tanks, artillery and aircraft to potentially stand against the entire rest of the world combined.
But the Soviets lacked one key ingredient of a successful modern society: a thriving economy. They had invested so much of their revenue in military hardware, all of which required tremendous maintenance costs, that in terms of overall wealth they and their Cold War allies began to fall ever further behind the West.
So when America deliberately started a renewed arms race in the 1980s, the Soviets found themselves at a profound disadvantage, albeit one they failed to realize at first. Their leaders reacted forcefully, vehemently proclaiming that the West would never rival their might, and redoubling investments in the Red Army. They also sought to re-exert their sphere of influence by invading their central Asian neighbor, Afghanistan.
But in the game of burning money, the richest contestant usually emerges victorious. And in the 1980s, America had a seemingly limitless amount of money to burn, while the Soviets did not. Catharsis ensued: the United States had within a decade succeeded in bankrupting their Communist adversary, whose economy eventually crumbled under the strain of endless conflicts and militarization.
The lesson is one history has repeatedly taught us: that marshaling armies is extremely unprofitable, as is deploying them on the battlefield. The more peace a nation can enjoy, the wealthier it will become, because it can invest in its economy, and not in useless hardware that will become obsolete within a few years' time.
Why does any of this matter? Because as I speak, the Chinese are playing the very same game with America that we played with the USSR. And we, like our ancient Cold War foe, are foolishly falling into the trap our contemporary adversary has lain for us. While America is bogged down in one military misadventure after another, China is patiently gaining strength, quietly biding their time as they build an economy that within a decade will have completely surpassed ours. And the point at which they decide to start another modern arms race with us will be one of the most defining moments of our time, because it will cripple our entire economy as we, like the Soviets, struggle to keep pace.
The sooner America sees this approaching storm, the sooner we can prepare for it. And as I have said before, I do not bring solutions. I only bring clarity in understanding the problems we as a people face.
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